The Usenet messages I wrote that aren't on Dejanews
These are the usenet messages that I wrote that aren't on DejaNews.
The first three are from before DejaNews started archiving (and they
are from my father's email account), and the other eighteen are on
ne.weather, which DejaNews didn't archive for a long time
after it started doing everything else.
From baron@cattell.psych.upenn.edu Tue Sep 6 10:30:39 EDT 1994
Article: 5352 of bit.listserv.wx-talk
Path: netnews.upenn.edu!cattell.psych.upenn.edu!baron
From: baron@cattell.psych.upenn.edu (Jonathan Baron)
Newsgroups: bit.listserv.wx-talk
Subject: Re: Long Live King John!!
Date: 6 Sep 1994 14:30:52 GMT
Organization: University of Pennsylvania, Department of Psychology
Lines: 45
Message-ID: <34hues$7pj@netnews.upenn.edu>
References:
NNTP-Posting-Host: cattell.psych.upenn.edu
Status: RO
In article ,
Kevin Vang wrote:
>It seems to me that Hurricane/Typhoon/Tropical Storm John has or soon will
>become the longest lived storm in all recorded world history, and it still
>is moderately strong. When will it gain the title? What previous storm
>held the title? Why/How is it able to do this? Any bets on when it will
>dissipate (maybe the earth like Jupiter is gaining an eternal spot ;-)
[sig removed]
I went through the lists for atlantic(1886-1992)and
Eastern/Central Pacific(1949-1992) and found that John is already
the longest ever that originated in the Eastern/Central Pacific,
but is still beaten by one in the atlantic.
Here are all Atlantic/Eastern&Central Pacific Storms that were 20
days or longer since good recordkeeping began:
Name Year Region Length(Days)
Ginger 1971 Atlantic 29.5 (includes 2.25 Extratropical)
John (as of 6/0900) E/C/WPac 26.0
Inga 1969 Atlantic 24.75
Tina 1992 E/CPac 24.5
Carrie 1957 Atlantic 23.0 (includes 2.0 Extratropical)
Boris 1984 EPac 20.5
Inez 1966 Atlantic 20.25
Fico 1978 E/CPac 20.0
(probably many others in other regions)
If you don't count the parts of the extratropical tracks included
in the lists (available in downdry.atmos.colostate.edu, directory
/pub), then John will tie at 1500 today and break at 2100 today.
If you do count extratropical tracks as part of the tropical
cyclone's duration, it might still break the record.
Of course, I don't have the data for any southern hemisphere
areas, as well as the north indian ocean. I was not willing to
page through the western pacific data to look, either. The
atlantic/Eastern Pacific data is easy to go throught because it
has headers for each storm that include duration (really, the
number of days that it existed on, but I can find the long ones
from that).
Does anyone know if there was a longer one (or many) in any other
areas of the world?
David Baron
From baron@cattell.psych.upenn.edu Fri Dec 30 11:15:50 EST 1994
Article: 13218 of sci.geo.meteorology
Path: netnews.upenn.edu!cattell.psych.upenn.edu!baron
From: baron@cattell.psych.upenn.edu (Jonathan Baron)
Newsgroups: sci.geo.meteorology
Subject: Re: GOES-7
Date: 30 Dec 1994 16:15:55 GMT
Organization: University of Pennsylvania, Department of Psychology
Lines: 29
Message-ID: <3e1bnr$mvo@netnews.upenn.edu>
References: <3dvfce$sf0@mark.ucdavis.edu>
NNTP-Posting-Host: cattell.psych.upenn.edu
Status: RO
In article <3dvfce$sf0@mark.ucdavis.edu>, Eric DeFonso wrote:
> Can anyone tell me what the status is of the relocation of the
>GOES-7 satellite to 135W? I've seen some of the recent pics, but I can't
>tell whether it has actually moved further west yet or whether I'm just
>imagining it. The last I read, the relocation was scheduled to begin
>December 20.
It is moving West, at about 0.6 degrees per day. It began around
December 20, from 112W, and should arrive at 135W on January 26
1995. At the beginning of 1995 (meaning 1/1/0000Z), it should be
at 118.92W. The source of this information is below (in response
to the next question). The effects on images should begin to be
more obvious in the next week or so.
> I've checked the GOES news Web site, but I didn't see any updates
>after mid-November. Is there another way to check on the status of the
>satellite relocations?
Gopher to geograf1.sbs.ohio-state.edu, and look in the "Satellite
Derived Products" directory. Specifically, the files "Geodetic
Subpoint Predictions for ..." and Goes Weekly Operations Plan.
The Geodetic Subpoint Predictions give the positions on the earth
that the satellite should be above a few days in advance. The
operations plan is a bulletin that gives information on the
satellite operations for the week, but often is not in very good
shape (characters missing). In addition, for this week, they got
the satellites mixed up in the headers.
David Baron
From baron@cattell.psych.upenn.edu Sat Dec 31 17:51:22 EST 1994
Article: 7070 of bit.listserv.wx-talk
Path: netnews.upenn.edu!cattell.psych.upenn.edu!baron
From: baron@cattell.psych.upenn.edu (Jonathan Baron)
Newsgroups: bit.listserv.wx-talk
Subject: Re: GOES-7
Organization: University of Pennsylvania, Department of Psychology
Lines: 41
References:
NNTP-Posting-Host: cattell.psych.upenn.edu
Status: RO
In article ,
Matt Rehwald wrote:
>Hello,
> Has anyone noticed that GOES-7 is steadily drifting to the west?
>We're finding that we have to aim our receiver dish a few degrees further
>west each day, and that our "eastern" view is becoming more of a central
>view, the "central" view is becoming a western view, and so on. Is this
>intentional, or is GOES-7 beginning to fall out of geosynchronous orbit?
They are changing the station of GOES-7 to the GOES-WEST position
of 135W. It is moving West, at about 0.6 degrees per day. It
began around December 20, from 112W, and should arrive at 135W on
January 26 1995. At the beginning of 1995 (meaning 1/1/0000Z),
it will be at 118.92W. The source of this information is below.
The effects on images are beginning to be more obvious this week.
This is from the OSU gopher (geograf1.sbs.ohio-state.edu), in the
"Satellite Derived Products" directory. Specifically, the files
"Geodetic Subpoint Predictions for ..." and Goes Weekly
Operations Plan. The Geodetic Subpoint Predictions give the
positions on the earth that the satellite should be above a few
days in advance. The operations plan is a bulletin that gives
information on the satellite operations for the week, but often
is not in very good shape (characters missing). In addition, for
this week (26 dec - 1 jan), they got the satellites mixed up in
the headers.
> In the same vein I remember there was a file somewhere that gave
>the GOES-8 testing schedule. Where is that info located, and is GOES-8
>online now (i.e. taking regular pictures)?
See above, but mainly the following, which is a little out of
date:
http://climate.gsfc.nasa.gov/~chesters/text/goesistatus.html
It is also on FTP and Gopher, but I don't have where.
GOES-8 is taking regular pictures at this point, and it will soon
be moving to the east (from 90W to 80W or 75W).
David Baron
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Sat Jul 15 10:38:18 1995
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Posted-Date: Sat, 15 Jul 1995 10:39:27 -0400
Message-Id: <199507151439.KAA08741@cattell.psych.upenn.edu>
Date: Sat, 15 Jul 95 10:38:22 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
X-Mailer: Mozilla 1.2b2 (Windows; I; 16bit)
Mime-Version: 1.0
Newsgroups: ne.weather
To: dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us
Subject: Chantal Update (with advisories)
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Status: RO
At 15/1152Z Recon still indicated minimum central pressure to be
1006 MB, but indicated a developing eye, Circular, diameter of 20
NM (nautical miles), and open to the SSW. This could be taken as
a sign of increasing organization. At 15/1345Z the recon plane
reported that there was no eye, so the report may have been a
bad (they think, at least) judgement call. Pressure was still
1006 MB at 1345.
Motion appears to be turning from the WNW to the W, but this
is probably not a long term effect.
The Maximum Estimated Surface Wind (There is no estimate in the
recon of maximum sustained winds, the estimate is essentially for
gusts) was 45 KT, which agrees with the current wind speed
estimate from the NHC.
Since many of the sites seem to be lacking their data delivery
(WX, OSU, FSU), here are the latest advisories (1500Z) direct
from NHC:
David Baron
-------------------------------
..FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 1995
RECON DATA INDICATES THAT CHANTAL CONTINUES ON TRACK AND IS MOVING A
LITTLE FASTER...TOWARD ABOUT 300/8 KT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED WAS 1006 MB AT 1345 UTC. THE STORM APPEARS BETTER
ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE PICTURES THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO.
THE 00Z AVN MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
CHANTAL AND ADJACENT DYNAMICAL FEATURES. THE TRACK MODELS HAVE A
SPLIT DECISION...WITH THE GFDL...AVN...AND VICBAR TURNING CHANTAL TO
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BAM AND NHC90 SHOW A
CONTINUATION OF A WNW TO NW TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST
ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND LIES BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
GROUPS...SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE WESTERN CLUSTER.
RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS STILL FORECAST.
ANALYSIS OF OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP WWDG WAS USED TO INCREASE THE
RADII OF 12 FT SEAS BEYOND THE RADII OF 34 KT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
RAPPAPORT
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 23.0N 67.9W 45 KTS
12HR VT 16/0000Z 23.6N 69.0W 50 KTS
24HR VT 16/1200Z 24.6N 70.0W 55 KTS
36HR VT 17/0000Z 25.7N 70.6W 60 KTS
48HR VT 17/1200Z 26.8N 71.0W 65 KTS
72HR VT 18/1200Z 29.0N 71.5W 70 KTS
--------------------------------------------------
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT JUL 15 1995
..CHANTAL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES
..545 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
..15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...AND
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
..230 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...23.0 N... 67.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
RAPPAPORT
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
--------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1500Z SAT JUL 15 1995
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 67.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT
34 KT.......125NE 100SE 25SW 100NW
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 25SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 67.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 67.6W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 23.6N 69.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 24.6N 70.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW
34 KT...125NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 25.7N 70.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT...125NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 67.9W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 26.8N 71.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 29.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
RAPPAPORT
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT JUL 15 1995
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 MILES OF
LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST TUE JUL 18 1995
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
24.6N 70.0W 46 X X X 46 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 3 3
25.7N 70.6W 28 3 X 1 32 FT PIERCE FL X X X 3 3
26.8N 71.0W 6 13 2 2 23 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3
MUGM 200N 751W X X X 2 2 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3
MDPP 198N 707W X X 1 3 4 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2
MBJT 215N 712W 3 4 2 2 11 SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2
MYMM 224N 730W 2 6 2 3 13 CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4
MYSM 241N 745W X 5 5 4 14 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 4 4
MYEG 235N 758W X 1 3 4 8 WILMINGTON NC X X X 5 5
MYAK 241N 776W X X 1 4 5 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 5 5
MYNN 251N 775W X X 2 5 7 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 5 5
MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 5 6 NORFOLK VA X X X 3 3
BERMUDA X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2
MIAMI FL X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON
D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
RAPPAPORT
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Tue Aug 1 09:48:12 1995
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Posted-Date: Tue, 1 Aug 1995 09:48:44 -0400
Message-Id: <199508011348.JAA19555@cattell20.psych.upenn.edu>
Date: Tue, 01 Aug 95 09:49:08 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
X-Mailer: Mozilla 1.2b2 (Windows; I; 16bit)
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To: dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us
Subject: Erin Turning North
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Status: RO
In possible agreement with Gary's models, the latest recon
(01/0903, 01/1053, 01/1209Z) shows that Erin is turning
north, but the last of those fixes (rather close to the second)
shows that Erin may be turning back to the WNW, but still
farther north of the previous advisory. The 5AM package
showed landfall, I think, around Ft. Lauderdale, but I expect
the 11AM to be quite a bit farther north. From the latest
satellite images it also seems as though there is convection
around all sides of the center, and there have been a few small
hints of a developing eye.
David Baron
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Tue Aug 8 08:33:26 1995
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Date: Tue, 08 Aug 95 08:35:30 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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Subject: Tropical Depression Seven Forms
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Status: RO
Tropical Depression Seven formed in the Eastern Atlantic this morning
from the strong tropical wave that moved off the African Coast a few
days ago. The limiting factor in its development, at this point,
anyway, seems to be water temperature. The temperature it is over is
26-27C, passable for Hurricane formation, but it may be moving towards
colder water. It is currently (08/0900Z) at 15.0N 32.7W, and it's forecast
track moves it to the WNW and the water begins to gradually warm in
36-48 hrs. The track shows gradual intensification. If the storm moves
south of that track, it is much more likely to be A) stronger, and B) a
threat to land. If it moves north of that track, or even on it, it is
more likely to recurve and die without hitting North America. The current
track takes the system to 20.5N 52.0W in 72 hrs.
On satellite imagery, the system looks like an impressive tropical
depression. It has a large circulation covering about 11-19N and
27-31W. The 0400Z (old) water vapor image shows large amounts of
convection reaching into the upper levels, but probably not as well
organized as it is now. On the visible imagery, the center does not
appear too clearly, but the system appears to be an organized TD.
There do not seem to be any upper level lows nearby to shear the
system.
I think there may be a better fix at 1500Z, with visible imagery, and
at that time the forecast may become clearer. First forecasts are
notoriously unreliable (especially for strength).
On another note, there appears to be another (not quite as) strong
wave coming off the coast of Africa, but with the strong convection
farther south (11N instead of 13N(?)).
David Baron
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Tue Aug 8 18:55:03 1995
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Date: Tue, 08 Aug 95 18:57:18 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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Subject: IRC?: TS Felix Forms (8/2100Z)
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Status: RO
Tropical Depression Seven became the sixth tropical storm of the year
(Felix) 800 miles east of the Cape Verde Islands. The water seems
warm enough for strengthening -- the main question seems to be the
track. The models are in good agreement, taking the system slighly
south of the previous track, on a track which would require an
Andrew-like turn to move it into the Gulf of Mexico, and the question
really seems to be whether it will curve away harmlessly from the
coast or hit the East Coast of the US. This, of course, is not a
question that can be answered at the present time (both in the life
of the storm and in the current era of weather forecasting).
I consider this a weather event worth discussing (along with the
wave in the Gulf of Mexico). I will be on IRC at 9PM if anyone else
wants to join in the discussion.
David Baron
dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Fri Aug 11 08:35:58 1995
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Date: Fri, 11 Aug 95 08:38:50 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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Subject: Felix: RECON
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Status: RO
Reconnaisance has found, not surprisingly to a number of people on
this group, that Felix is or will soon be stronger than the NHC thought
it was. They found a pressure 12 MB lower than the NHC's estimate of
984 MB. Even though they did find 972 MB pressure, they did not find
Flight Level Winds suggesting that Felix is even a hurricane. This was
probably because they flew straight to the center to get the first fix.
Either Felix is intensifying rapidly (pressure drop before wind increase)
or Felix is probably a Category 2. If it isn't now, the pressure suggests
it is or will be soon. (Cat 2 is less than 979MB, Felix is 972).
The center also seems to be just slightly north of the NHC forecast or
previous track. The recon found an 18NM circular eye open to the SE.
David Baron
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Sat Aug 19 16:36:16 1995
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Date: Sat, 19 Aug 95 16:37:20 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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To: dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us
Subject: Re: Then there was Ginger (long life).
References: <410ak4$9l7@clarknet.clark.net> <410her$ihq@bone.think.com> <414mka$8rk@alterdial.UU.NET>
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Status: RO
Burt Fisher wrote:
>-andee@Think.COM (Daan Sandee) wrote:
>>
>>Uh, Tropical Storm Gabrielle has come and gone a long time ago (Felix is
>>trying for the record of longest-lived Atlantic named storm, while
>>Gabrielle, who ran ashore in NE Mexico last week, may have been one of
>>the shortest-lived T.S.es on record - less than 24 hours, I think.)
>>The next one will be T.S. Humberto.
>>
>
>I think 20 years ago or so there was a Hurricane named Ginger that lived
>for 40 days. Felix is not close.
Gabrielle was nowhere close to Dean, earlier in the year, which
was a TS for 3 hours (probably a record). It became a TS (rather
certainly) right before hitting Texas.
Ginger was only around for 29 days, and Felix is nowhere close to that.
Felix is not unusual in the length of its life.
Ginger was the longest in the Atlantic, though it didn't cover a whole
lot of area (just covered the same area a few times). The longest
in the Pacific, though, was John last year. It covered a tremendous
area. It formed off of the coast of Mexico, became the strongest
hurricane in the Central Pacific (150KT, a record previously set(Elena)
and tied(G???-disputed) in that same year). Then it stalled out
around 170E and became a TD, but then strengthened and moved northeast,
becoming a hurricane as it moved back across the dateline. It became
extratropical soon after a little south of Alaska.
David Baron
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Sun Aug 20 13:21:52 1995
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Date: Sun, 20 Aug 95 13:23:16 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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Subject: East Atlantic Wave!
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Status: RO
The wave in the East Atlantic looks like it is developing very rapidly.
The 20/1500Z MET-5 D4 image (infrared) shows a very well defined center
of circulation in the eastern part of some deep convection, around
10.5N 26.5W. When I animate the images, the 1200-1500Z cloud
movement to the south of the system looks like it is toward the
ENE. This would make the system a tropical depression, and I
would not be surprised in the least if this system becomes a TD
at 2100Z or any time thereafter. I think it is much more likely
to develop than the wave around Jamaica. (I was saying last night
on IRC that if that wave develops it could just as easily be TD10
than TD9). It appears that the recon. flight into the carribean
wave was canceled by the NHC, though I am not sure of that.
David Baron
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Mon Aug 21 15:25:23 1995
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Date: Mon, 21 Aug 95 15:27:03 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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Status: RO
Well, there is a lot going on. The Tropical Weather Outlook
at 1500Z mentioned 5 suspect areas. One in the northern gulf,
one around cuba/hispanola/bahamas, and the three waves in the
atlantic. The easternmost of those waves is the best organized,
though it looked a bit better yesterday, it could still become
a TD anytime. I saw this, the GFDL forecast for it, which means
that they are taking it seriously:
WHXX04 KWBC 211832
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NMC HURRICANE MODEL...GFDL MMM...FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM NAMELESS 91L
INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 21
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 12.0 30.2
6 13.1 30.6 340./11.2
12 14.3 31.0 340./13.4
18 15.3 31.6 331./10.7
24 15.8 32.4 304./ 9.3
STORM DISSIPATED AT 24 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
-----------------------
David Baron
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Tue Aug 22 08:26:21 1995
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Date: Tue, 22 Aug 95 08:28:12 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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Subject: TD 9 Forms
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Status: RO
Tropical Depression nine formed out of the third wave, and the first
advisory was issued at 22/1200Z. The 0600Z position was 13.6N 34.4W.
The forecast is for a turn to the NW, which makes landfall very
unlikely. It is already moving in that direction. There is a weakness
in the high pressure ridge to its north. There is still the possibility
of development in the other waves in the atlantic, especially the second
wave (700 miles east of the lesser antilles), so we are definitely
having an active season.
David Baron
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Tue Aug 22 11:10:08 1995
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Date: Tue, 22 Aug 95 11:12:01 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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Subject: TS Humberto & TD10 Form!!!
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Status: RO
Tropical Depression Nine became a 45 Kt TS, TS Humberto (oom-BEAR-toe).
It is expected to move NW and reach hurricane strength in 48 hours.
Additionally, the second wave became tropical depression ten, which
is expected to reach tropical storm strength in 24 hrs. There is an
upper level low north of Puerto Rico, which may well inhibit
strengthening of this depression, but it also could move out of the
way. If it reaches Tropical Storm strength, it will be named Iris
(unless something else beats it to Iris (remember, Irises are in EYES)
It is expected to move toward the WNW into the northeastern carribean
by 72 hours.
I would not be surprised to see some interesting interaction between the
two. Interaction would hold TD Ten to the south and pull Humberto north,
which happens to be the forecast anyway, because of a weakness in the
ridge north of Humberto.
Remainder of the name list for the year in the atlantic:
Iris, Jerry, Karen, Luis, Marilyn, Noel, Opal, Pablo, Roxanne,
Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Who knows, we may use it. What a year.
David Baron
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Tue Aug 22 17:48:20 1995
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Date: Tue, 22 Aug 95 17:50:16 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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Subject: TD 11 Forms!!! (3 in one day!)
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Status: RO
Tropical Depression eleven formed just off the florida coast. It is
expected to move over land, and then maybe get into the extreme
northeast gulf of mexico before making landfall again. It is not
expected to reach tropical storm strength. Still, three in one day
is almost unheard of (not quite: I found an instance: August 15, 1893,
but data then was unreliable). Could we make four? Could the wave
just off Africa or the wave on the lesser antilles make TD 12, and four
in one day. Unlikely, but possible.
David Baron
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Tue Aug 22 19:13:06 1995
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Date: Tue, 22 Aug 95 19:15:01 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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Subject: Re: Sapping up energy?
References: <410tdm$fp1@ddi2.digital.net> <1995Aug21.154808.1@aspen.uml.edu> <41auv6$og@shore.shore.net> <41bjq2$6tn@caesar.ultra.net>
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Status: RO
toddg@weatherman.com (Todd Gross) wrote:
>
>>There is a (???) 'something' effect that can make hurricanes pin wheel
>>around each other. Sorry, I can't remember the name of the effect. I
>>do know its the name of the scientist that did the study. Maybe Gary,
>>Todd, or someone else can jump in and answer that.
>
>>
>
>Fuji wawa, or something like that..
Fujiwara, I think it is spelled. It occurs much more often in the
Western Pacific than anywhere else, it seems, especially last year
and the year before. Sometimes the storms can merge. In fact, an
interaction is occuring right now between TS J?????(10W) and TD 11W.
The tropical storm is a bit stronger, though. Last year Tropical
Storms Pat and Ruth combined into one.
David Baron
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Mon Aug 28 08:48:20 1995
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Date: Sat, 26 Aug 95 12:37:28 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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Subject: TD 12 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Status: RO
Tropical Depression Twelve formed in the Eastern Atlantic. The NHC
analyzed the center as being under the convection, and decided to
initiate advisories. It is expected to move roughly towards the west
to west-northwest, though it is already far enough north that any turn
towards the north would make it less likely to hit land. The center
is located, at 1600Z, at 15.5N, 33.8W. The system is expected to become
Tropical Storm (Karen) in twelve hours. Interaction with Humberto is
unlikely at the current distance between these two systems, but, if it
occurs, it would pull TD 12 farther to the north, inhibiting further
development.
David Baron.
(P.S. If you send me email, I won't get it, because the computer that
my email is on is cut off from the 'net)
From dbaron@mail.t-e.k12.pa.us Sat Sep 9 14:37:04 1995
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Date: Sat, 09 Sep 95 14:11:15 -0400
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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Subject: New Tropical Waves
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Status: RO
There are two tropical waves worth watching. One is about 1200
miles west of the Lesser Antilles, and could develop into a
tropical depression at any time. The GFDL model was run on this
system this morning (NAMELESS 99L), and the initial position (9/12Z)
was at 18.6N 42.2W, normally too far north to be of any danger, BUT...
The predicted motion of the system is 255, or WSW. It is forecast
to 18.0 44.6 in 6 hrs (18Z) and forecast to dissipate by GFDL (GFDL
knows that it is currently a wave and generally does not forecast
waves through 72 hrs, though it often keeps them going for 24-36 hrs.)
On satellite images, the convection is impressive but the low level
circulation looks like it is rather weak and on the south side of the
convection.
Second, a new wave came off Africa, and is looking like it could develop
in a few days (it didn't JUST come off Africa, but...)
Might we have Christmas in September??? (The storm after Marilyn is
Noel)
David Baron
--------------------------------------------------------------
| L. David Baron | |
| dbaron@t-e.k12.pa.us | |
|----------------------+-------------------------------------|
| Sophomore, Conestoga High School |
--------------------------------------------------------------
From dbaron@t-e.k12.pa.us Fri Nov 10 16:37:08 1995
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Date: Fri, 10 Nov 1995 15:37:05 -0500
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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To: HARVEYWX
CC: dbaron@t-e.k12.pa.us
Subject: Re: definition of super typhoon?
References: <47c005$ise@news2.delphi.com> <47gie1$nt6@newsbf02.news.aol.com>
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HARVEYWX (Harvey Leonard) wrote:
> Since typhoons are actually hurricanes that occur in the Western Pacific,
> perhaps we can presume a super typhoon would be the same as a super
> hurricane, perhaps above a category 5, meaning sustained winds greater
> than 175 mph. That's my coomon sense response. I don't know if " super
> typhoon" is an official term or not. Maybe someone else knows.
The super typhoon is an official designation, at least by the
JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), in Guam, which issues
advisories for the South Pacific, the North West Pacific (West
of 180) and the Indian Ocean. These advisories, in many areas,
are not considered official and the governments in those areas
issue official advisories (which are usually far inferior).
Anyway...the Super Typhoon designation is a little different
from a Cat 5 Hurricane:
A Cat 5 hurricane is winds greater than or equal to 135 KT (155
MPH)
whereas a super typhoon is winds greater than or equal to 130KT
(or at least, 125KT is NOT a super typhoon, whereas 130KT is)
There are generally a good number of systems that reach super typhoon
strenth, though Angela's 155 KT (or was it 150?) was quite strong...
and unluckily so for being the storm that hit near a major metropolitan
area (Manila).
David Baron
--
--------------------------------------------------------------
| L. David Baron | |
| dbaron@t-e.k12.pa.us | |
|----------------------+-------------------------------------|
| Sophomore, Conestoga High School |
--------------------------------------------------------------
From dbaron@t-e.k12.pa.us Wed Dec 27 08:39:30 1995
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Date: Wed, 27 Dec 1995 08:39:02 -0500
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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Subject: Idea for a Unified Weather Site
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Status: RO
I still remember the days when if I wanted to get some weather
information, I would check the Weather Underground, look at the U
of Illinois Weather Machine, and then at Purdue's Weather
Processor, and if it wasn't at those three, it wasn't on the
Internet. Since then, things have become more complicated, and
there are a tremendous number of places to find data. A raw
listing of sites is so long that it is sometimes useless. Some
people have tried to make comprehensive lists of weather
resources on the Internet, but this is an impossible task for one
person, and there are also many competing lists. (Michael
MacDonald has done a good job with WeatherNet
). It would be much easier
if the information to be listed were split up among a number of
people, who would then specialize in the one topic that they
list. Those people would then be the authorities on that type of
data, and, in an ideal system, would be told of any new data put
on the Internet by the providers of that data. This could be a
good community web project for some of us in the weather
community, in what I see as the [old] spirit of the Internet.
A proposal for some categories follows (just my brainstorm):
* Tropical Weather (not divided by regions(?)...already done well
for the Atlantic by Eric Blake in the Atlantic Tropical Weather
Center )
* Surface Images and Data (by region or location, or type, or
maybe indexed by both)
* Upper Air Images and Data (by region/type)
* Forecast Model Images(by model/region) and Output (by city/model)
* Satellite Images (I have already made a start on this with my
International Weather Satellite Imagery Center...
* Composites of above image types...(by what they are a composite
of...and with links from the above sites to the appropriate
composite sections)
* End User Forecasts (by city/region)
* Local Conditions (Text) (by city/region)
* Severe Weather (including Winter Weather) (by city/region, etc.)
* Marine Weather
* Weather Discussion Information (Newsgroups/IRC)
* Listings for local cities/regions that linked to all of the
appropriate sections of the parts above.
(WeatherNet has a lot of bits and pieces (some large) of what is
above).
There would then be a unifying site to list all of the above sites.
Is anyone interested in this idea/willing to help? Comments and
suggestions are welcome. This is only an idea. I am interested
to hear what you have to say about this idea.
David Baron
--
---------------------------------------------------------------
L. David Baron | Sophomore, Conestoga High School
dbaron@t-e.k12.pa.us |
Webmaster, CHS & International Weather Satellite Imagery Center
---------------------------------------------------------------
From dbaron@t-e.k12.pa.us Fri Jan 5 20:36:12 1996
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Date: Fri, 05 Jan 1996 20:35:49 -0500
From: David Baron
Organization: Conestoga High School
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CC: dbaron@t-e.k12.pa.us
Subject: Chaos (was Re: Thanks MRF! ...)
References: <4ccbe6$bn7@sundog.tiac.net> <4chca0$ipv@caesar.ultra.net>
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Status: RO
Wayne Upham wrote:
> The old MRF was never right that far out. The new MRF is looking
> better and better all the time. I'm still not sure it will be that
> good all the time. Chaos can make huge errors in medium range models
> and, unfortunately, there's no way to get rid of all of it.
Is it really clear that this error in the 5-10 day range can be
attributed to chaos? I think (personal opinion...I have never
heard anything on either side) that it is more likely that this
time period could be predicted quite well if we had better
initializing data. I think the initial analyses have major
problems right now and work should be put into improving them
(especially in the tropics....I haven't really looked at them
elsewhere). From a small mistake in the analysis, chaos
certainly can throw off the forecast in that range, as can the
size of the grid in the model, etc. Thus I would think that it
would be possible to get rid of almost all of that error by
better analyses/grids/computing power, etc.
What I would somewhat doubt (though it may be true...I am
no expert) is that a butterfly could influence the weather
only 10 days later. If there is anyone who knows of any
information about theories about this I would be *very*
interested to hear.
> If you get a chance, pick up "Chaos, making a new science" by James
> Gleick. It's about Edward Lorenz, the MIT meteorologist that
> discovered it and everything that's happened since then. The book is
> good reading like a biography or history and doesn't get bogged down
> with technical or mathematical stuff. I'm in the middle of it now and
> love it. Chaos can be applied to every part of life, not just science.
I am in the process of reading it now....slowly (due to lack of time),
and I do find it very good. The topic raises a tremendous number of
interesting (and often unanswerable) questions.
--
---------------------------------------------------------------
L. David Baron | Sophomore, Conestoga High School
dbaron@t-e.k12.pa.us |
Webmaster, CHS & International Weather Satellite Imagery Center
---------------------------------------------------------------
From dbaron@t-e.k12.pa.us Tue Aug 27 20:01:24 1996
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Date: Tue, 27 Aug 1996 20:01:18 -0400
From: David Baron
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Subject: TPC Probability Statements - Concerns
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Status: RO
I have a number of criticisms of the TPC's (Tropical Prediction
Center, formerly National Hurricane Center) probability charts
for tropical cyclones. I have finally decided to mention these
on the group. I hope that someone from TPC or is otherwise
knowledgable will respond.
The problem is that, mathematically, they just don't make sense.
There are two specific problems I see:
The first problem is that when the forecast positions are given,
the probabilities don't make sense with the forecast positions.
As an example, I will use
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE AUG 27 1996
The three items given in this statement are all forecast
positions:
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
10.5N 36.0W 45 X X X 45 10.5N 40.0W X 13 6 2 21
10.5N 38.0W 8 19 X 1 28
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU
C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU
D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
The first position given, 10.5N 36.0W, is the forecast position
for 28/1800Z, or 2PM WED. The probability of the system passing
within 65 miles *before* the forecast time is 45%, yet the
probability of passing within 65 miles *after* the forecast time
is 0%. One would expect these probabilities to be about equal.
The same is true for the second position as well (B and C should
be about equal)
This is very consistent with my observations of other statements.
This could be explained by the fact that it is the probability of
*entering* the region within 65 miles of that location during the
probability period, but this does not seem to account for as much
difference as exists.
The second concern I have is that probabilities are added when
computing column E in these statements. Probabilities are rarely
additive, and they are not in this case (only when only one of A,
B, C, and D is possible). However, the probability of a
hurricane passing within 65 miles of a location in one time
period is correlated with the probability of it passing within 65
miles of the location in another period, mainly because systems
can easily stay within the area, and also because they can enter
twice. Eight hours, or even much longer in weak steering
currents, is a reasonable amount of time for a system to travel
100-130 miles. Thus, E should be lower still then that obtained
from the standard mathematical formula I give below, where
probabilities are assumed to be uncorrelated. (Note that there
would be less correlation (meaning the formula I give would be
closer) or more likely a negative correlation (meaning E would be
between TPC's formula and the one I give), if the probabilities
were for *entering* the 65 mile range, since systems are less
likely to enter twice.)
Here is a line from a DOLLY statement last week:
22.0N 99.5W 18 10 1 X 29
If the time periods were uncorrelated, column E would be:
E=100%-(probability it is in no other columns)
=100%-((100%-A)(100%-B)(100%-C)(100%-D)) <-- THE FORMULA
which in this case would be 27%, not much of a difference.
However, when the probabilities are higher, the difference is
greater (especially when they add to more than 100%!)
Two more hypothetical examples, though I have seen things like
them:
A B C D E
43 22 17 2 84
E should be under 63%. (63% if uncorrelated)
A B C D E
99 12 X X 99
Well, you can't add here. This is correct by all methods, though
if TPC were consistent, they would give 111%!
In addition, they never go above 99 (even if it is already within
65 miles!) to 100, which they should do in these cases.
These observations lead me towards the conclusion that there is
certainly no formula for computing these probabilities, and
probably no standard way of doing so. Rather, the forecasters
just sit down and write the probabilities. The statement, at
first glance, seems deceptively calculated and formula based (as
TRANTECH's is.)
TRANTECH's strike charts, being in a different, and, IMHO, far
superior, format, do not suffer from these problems.
The only use of the TPC statements seems to be in gauging the
uncertainty of the forecasters.
David Baron
---------------------------------------------------------------
L. David Baron | Junior (1996-97), Conestoga High School
dbaron@t-e.k12.pa.us |
Webmaster, CHS & International Weather Satellite Imagery Center
---------------------------------------------------------------
LDB, dbaron@fas.harvard.edu