by David Baron
The tipping point state is computed by sorting all the electoral college votes (assuming no faithless electors) by the % margin and finding the one that, given a uniform percentage swing, would have tipped the election.
If the tipping point is at the boundary of two states then those states are considered to have tied for being the tipping point. In this situation a uniform swing could have caused an electoral college tie.
The electoral college's bias is the difference between the vote margin of the tipping point state (or the midpoint of the two tied states) and the vote margin nationwide.
| Year | Tipping point | USA | Electoral college bias |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Margin | Margin | ||
| 2020 (tie) |
Wisconsin | D+0.63% | D+4.45% | R+3.56% |
| Pennsylvania | D+1.16% | |||
| 2016 | Wisconsin | R+0.77% | D+2.10% | R+2.87% |
| 2012 | Colorado | D+5.37% | D+3.86% | D+1.51% |
| 2008 (tie) * |
Iowa | D+9.53% | D+7.27% | D+1.97% |
| Colorado | D+8.95% | |||
| 2004 | Ohio | R+2.11% | R+2.46% | D+0.35% |
| 2000 | Florida | R+0.01% | D+0.52% | R+0.53% |
| 1996 | Pennsylvania | D+9.20% | D+8.52% | D+0.68% |
| 1992 | Tennessee | D+4.65% | D+5.56% | R+0.91% |
| 1988 | Michigan | R+7.90% | R+7.73% | R+0.17% |
| 1984 | Michigan | R+18.99% | R+18.22% | R+0.77% |
| 1980 | Illinois | R+7.93% | R+9.74% | D+1.81% |
| 1976 | Wisconsin | D+1.68% | D+2.06% | R+0.38% |
| 1972 (tie) |
Ohio | R+21.56% | R+23.15% | D+0.88% |
| Maine | R+22.98% | |||
| 1968 | Omitted (3 candidates won electoral votes) | |||
| 1964 | Washington | D+24.59% | D+22.58% | D+2.01% |
| 1960 | Omitted (3 candidates won electoral votes) | |||
| 1956 | Florida | R+14.54% | R+15.40% | D+0.86% |
| 1952 | Michigan | R+11.47% | R+10.85% | R+0.62% |
| 1948 | Omitted (3 candidates won electoral votes) | |||
| 1944 | New York | D+5.01% | D+7.49% | R+2.48% |
| 1940 | Pennsylvania | D+6.89% | D+9.95% | R+3.06% |
| 1936 | Ohio | D+20.56% | D+24.25% | R+3.69% |
| 1932 | Iowa | D+17.71% | D+17.76% | R+0.05% |
| 1928 | Illinois | R+14.65% | R+17.42% | D+2.77% |
| 1924 | Omitted (3 candidates won electoral votes) | |||
| 1920 | Rhode Island | R+31.19% | R+26.17% | R+5.02% |
| 1916 | California | D+0.38% | D+3.12% | R+2.74% |
| 1912 | Omitted (3 candidates won electoral votes) | |||
| 1908 | West Virginia | R+10.25% | R+8.53% | R+1.72% |
| 1904 | New Jersey | R+18.63% | R+18.83% | D+0.20% |
| 1900 | Illinois | R+8.39% | R+6.13% | R+2.26% |
(using results tables from wikipedia)
* I had 2008 incorrectly listed as just Iowa. I fixed it on 2020-11-05.